Although humans are notorious for elevating leaders to deity status, they are far from being superheroes. And, while leaders may not have the X-ray vision of Superman, they need to view their organization and the world surrounding it from a different perspective than the average person. In other words, they need to be like the four-eyed fish, a species of fish found in the Amazon that can look for dangers and opportunities below the water and above the water at the same time.
The rapid rate of both the dangers and the opportunities that are confronting leaders is stunning. For example, in a recent speech to House lawmakers, the Director of the FBI, Chris Wray, said, “As I look back over my career in law enforcement, I would be hard-pressed to think of a time where so many threats to public safety and national security were so elevated all at once, but that is the case as I sit here today.” I found this quote to be sobering, and yet it articulates what so many leaders are experiencing today. There are threats as well as extraordinary opportunities before us if only we can see them. Leaders would do well to lead with knowledge and a spirit of learning rather than a spirit of fear. But to do so requires keen insight. Here are nine areas every leader should pay attention to over the next few years.
1. Missing the emerging trends
Circuit City missed the shifts taking place in how consumers purchased electronics, and Best Buy crushed them. Higher education arrogantly dismissed online education as inferior and paid the price. There were 2,500 shopping malls in 1980, and now there are 700 – thanks, Amazon. Either by inattentiveness or arrogance, it is easy for emerging trends to be dismissed, especially when your organization is still riding a wave of success. However, certain trends can and do result in industry-altering outcomes.
2. Aging demographic
The U.S. population is aging at a rapid pace as a result of decreasing fertility and couples having fewer children later in life. Without immigration, the US demographic would be even older than it presently is. About 11,000 people each day are now turning 65. By 2030, 1 in 5 will be 65 or older. We are moving from a youth-centric culture to a senior-centric culture. This will shape retirement planning, Social Security, health care, employment manpower, and how organizations staff for the future.
3. Shifting racial and ethnic diversity
There have been multiple cultural shifts in the U.S. including race and ethnicity. In 1900, 1 in 8 were a race other than white. In 1990, it was 1 in 5. By 2060, it will be 1 in 3. This shift will require helping employees to better understand and appreciate the differences such diversity brings and how to create an organizational culture that takes diversity into account. This change is an opportunity for organizations to become better since diversity can have great benefits not only for teams but also for the clients and customers we serve.
4. Growth in the number of struggling employees
Over 46 million people experience a severe mental illness each year, 23 million struggle with drug use, 26 million are considered alcoholics, and almost 78 million are listed on the criminal database. Employers who are using all four of their eyes will understand this and take it seriously by accepting it as the new normal. This will include getting creative and continuing to build the infrastructure to support employees, especially if leaders want a full workforce.
5. Creativity and flexibility regarding work
While the debate regarding remote work started before the pandemic, it was given jet fuel during that time. After reading multiple studies and surveys, here is my summary: There are many factors that shape work, and some jobs cannot be done with flexibility and remotely (for example, medical procedures in a hospital). High levels of trust and great synergy feed off of time together. But commuting, doctor’s appointments, and other factors feed off of flexibility, and flexibility allows employees to manage life better and reduce stress. Leaders would be foolish to not think creatively and to not consider flexibility whenever possible.
6. Artificial Intelligence will become increasingly enmeshed in your organization.
Artificial Intelligence is only beginning to bloom, and its impact is in the infant stage of what will likely result in transformational change in the coming years. From content creation including music and voice, to diagnosis and treatment of disease, to greater productivity in the workplace, AI is like the invention of the computer or automobile whose long-term impacts were far greater than could ever have been imagined. And with AI’s impact will come unique threats and amazing opportunities.
7. Economics
The U.S. national debt has now surpassed $34 trillion dollars or the equivalent of $103,000 per person. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan has used the term “cliff” to describe the debt and its coming impact. Combine this with other factors like a collapsing age demographic and inflation, and, like the Bob Dylan song from the 1980s, there’s a slow train coming! Leaders can respond in one of three ways: deny it, become fatalistic regarding it, or anticipate and plan for it.
8. Staffing
Finding talent and retaining talent is one of the never-ending responsibilities in front of most leaders. It is estimated that people change jobs every 3-4 years. However, many leaders look at their job as being finished once they make the hire, and they forget about the importance of re-recruitment. Smart leaders regularly look below the waterline at culture, satisfaction of the team, compensation, and opportunities for growth. But they also look on the horizon at long-term needs such as anticipating the future talent they will need, who is at risk of leaving, and planning for succession including their own.
9. Organizational health
Sometimes leaders treat the health of their organizations like their own bodies. They focus on what is immediate rather than what is needed for long-term health and vitality. They fill positions, track hours, fulfill payroll, and look at financial statements (hopefully). But they sometimes fail to look at the overall health of the organization which includes culture, financial and market trends, vulnerabilities, and priorities. In other words, they fail to use all four of their eyes.
During Old Testament times there was a group of people called the children of Issachar who were known for their understanding of the times in which they lived and being able to discern what to do. That is what we as leaders need to be doing in 2024. Don’t limit yourself to my examples. Spend time with your team and discuss the threats as well as the opportunities that may be ahead. More eyes are better than less.
Contact us to learn how our consultants can help you prepare your organization and your team for the future.
Jay Desko is the President & CEO of The Center Consulting Group and brings experience in the areas of organizational assessment, leadership coaching, decision-making, and strategic questioning. Jay’s degrees include an M.Ed. in Instructional Systems Design from Pennsylvania State University and a Ph.D. in Organizational Behavior and Leadership from The Union Institute.
